VANCOUVER – The Novel Coronavirus, more commonly known as CoVID-19, has now been with us for 10 months. As of writing, there have been more than 54 million cases and more than 1.3 million deaths worldwide. With the autumn months upon us, Canada is being hit particularly hard by a second wave. On November 14th, daily cases in Canada reached a new high of 5,274. With the virus unlikely to disappear anytime soon, the Canadian government has indicated that they will continue to take a preventative stance and keep lock down measures in place. With the economic effects of CoVID-19 weighing heavy on Canadians, policymakers have begun to explore options for an economic recovery program that has social distancing at the heart of it.
While Canadian officials have done an excellent job in monitoring the public health impact of CoVID-19, less has been done to keep track of the long-term economic consequences that have accompanied lockdown. With the generous government stimulus package beginning to be phased out, it is important that Canadians understand the impact that CoVID-19 and the subsequent lockdown has had on their communities and businesses. This is especially the case at the local level, where Canadians on a daily basis are faced with making important decisions about their future.
To provide an indication of local level impact, we have compiled a CoVID-19 Community Economic Impact Index, assessing the prospect of job loss for population centers with less than 10,000 inhabitants across British Columbia. Given that accurate data does not exist at the local level, the August Labor Force Survey was used to examine the job loss numbers by sector at the national level and the results extrapolated. To do this, employment figures in February, before Canada went into lockdown, were compared with employment figures in April, which is considered the peak of the lockdown. From here, the magnitude of job loss by sector was identified. A breakdown of this can be found in the figure below.
Total job loss was estimated at -16%. The sectors that experienced the largest job losses were Accommodation and Food Services (-50%); Information, Culture and Recreation (-24%); Other Services (-23%); Construction (-21%); and Wholesale and Retail Trade (-20%). Given that each of these sectors require face to face interaction, working in close proximity with others or in confined spaces, none of this comes as a particular surprise. Removing such opportunities for the virus to spread was the primary aim of the lockdown measures. The sectors that were less effected, however, were those that could more easily be conducted from home or away from others. This included Agriculture; Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Quarrying, Oil and Gas; Public Administration; Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental and Leasing; and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services. All of which experienced job losses of less than 10%.
"The sectors that experienced the largest job losses were Accommodation and Food Services (-50%); Information, Culture and Recreation (-24%); Other Services (-23%); Construction (-21%); and Wholesale and Retail Trade (-20%)."
Although the effects of the lockdown were devastating at the national level, which is fairly diversified when it comes to employment, it is even more harmful to those local economies that were overly reliant on one of the more vulnerable sectors – this includes retail centres, tourism towns and those communities that rely on important economic boosts from hosting sporting and cultural events. The following table showcases the CoVID-19 Community Economic Impact Index, which applies the prospect of job loss data to the composition of jobs for population centres in British Columbia. Employment figures were taken from the 2016 Census, which is the most recent census count on record. All figures have been indexed to the Canadian average which is set at 100; meaning that anything above 100 has been impacted more negatively then the Canadian average, whereas anything less than 100 has been impacted less negatively than the Canadian average. As can be seen, tourist centres such as Whistler, Squamish, Parksville and Penticton, which tend to have a disproportionate amount of jobs in sectors such as Accommodation and Food Services, Wholesale and Retail Trade and Construction have been hit the hardest. Whereas places like White Rock, Port Moody and Oak Bay, which seem to have much more diversified economies, and which are less reliant on the hard-hit industries have weathered the storm much better than the Canadian average. It is important to note that this index is based on the prospect of job loss by sector applied to the job composition at the local level during the peak of the pandemic lockdown (ie. February to April). This means that it does not factor in other important variables such as the number of CoVID-19 cases in each community or more (or less) stringent lockdown measures. Therefore, despite these figures, communities that took a stronger stance implementing social distancing and other preventive measures would have fared much better than those that did not.
CoVID-19 Community Economic Impact Index
1. Whistler 158.89
2. Squamish 118.52
3. Parksville 115.97
4. Penticton 114.34
5. Vernon 113.92
6. Terrace 112.89
7. Kelowna 112.49
8. Cranbrook 111.97
9. Dawson Creek 111.84
10. Port Alberni 111.42
11. Courtenay 110.83
12. City of Langley 110.55
13. Lake Country 109.61
14. Kamloops 109.58
15. Richmond 109.43
16. West Kelowna 108.52
17. Nanaimo 108.44
18. Powell River 108.40
19. Salmon Arm 108.28
20. Vancouver 108.06
21. Surrey 107.85
22. North Cowichan 107.59
23. Prince George 107.50
24. Campbell River 107.29
25. Nelson 107.22
26. Mission 106.84
27. Victoria 106.34
28. Coquitlam 106.33
29. Abbotsford 105.92
30. Fort St John 105.88
31. Burnaby 105.76
32. Port Coquitlam 105.64
33. Maple Ridge 105.62
34. Sechelt District Municipality 105.59
35. Chilliwack 105.34
36. Williams Lake 105.25
37. Sidney 105.24
38. Langley District Municipality 105.23
39. Prince Rupert 105.15
40. City of North Vancouver 104.84
41. Delta 104.61
42. New Westminster 103.34
43. Coldstream 101.90
44. Saanich 101.41
45. Summerland 100.45
46. Langford 100.05
47. Canada Average 100.00
48. White Rock 99.71
49. Sooke 99.43
50. Pitt Meadows 99.42
51. N. Vancouver District Municipality 98.43
52. Port Moody 98.10
53. Colwood 96.69
54. Esquimalt 96.01
55. Comox 95.10
56. Central Saanich 95.08
57. North Saanich 94.23
58. View Royal 93.73
59. West Vancouver 88.50
60. Oak Bay 87.85
The purpose of this index is to act as an entry point for local governments to conduct their own more detailed post-mortem assessments of their local economies and to establish strategies to help get their economies back on track. For more information or to set up a meeting to discuss the prospects of an assessment in your community, please contact us directly.
Kyle Farrell is Managing Partner and Chief Urban Economist at Economic Pulse Analytics. He works closely with local governments to provide them with population, housing and employment forecasts to make more informed decisions about their future. He holds a PhD with specialized knowledge in Urban Economics and regularly consults for the United Nations.
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